MethodologyContact usSupportLogin
However, sell-side market participants have questioned the critical minerals policy’s relevance — particularly to South Africa’s manganese ore market — and expressed skepticism over how and whether it will be implemented.
The policy was formally introduced on May 20, when South Africa’s Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, announced the adoption of the Critical Minerals Strategy and released the MRDB for public consultation.
The strategy includes plans to support South Africa’s ferro-alloys industry, among other development goals, with previous discussions around the policy prompting opposition from the Minerals Council South Africa, which pushed back against government suggestions of export taxes aimed at supporting domestic beneficiation — the local processing of raw minerals into higher-value products.
Platinum, manganese, iron ore, coal and chrome are categorized as highly critical, while gold, palladium, rhodium and rare earth rank as medium-high.
Meanwhile, the MRDB aims to curb illegal mining and support junior miners by streamlining permits, better aligning with environmental and water regulations, and ultimately boosting South Africa’s role in the green and tech-driven economy.
Buy-side sources noted that, given South Africa’s leading role in supplying manganese and chrome, the critical minerals policy move could significantly impact global supply chains — especially to China’s bellwether markets.
One chromite source said the initiative was “required for long-term growth and sustainability” in the mining sector. But other sell-side market players were more critical following the announcement.
“I have no doubt the government will, and needs to, do something to protect [manganese alloy] smelters in South Africa that have closed down or are at risk of closing down,” one manganese miner said. “However, these smelters have limited capacity in terms of the amount of downstream [domestic consumption].”
Producer sources cautioned that policies focusing on beneficiation and any potential export restrictions would be more relevant to South Africa’s highly concentrated and globally dominant chrome market than to its more fragmented and export-reliant manganese ore sector.
A manganese ore miner added that the government relies “heavily” on income from mineral extraction, and therefore they do not expect exports of manganese ore to be limited “so long as the quantity cannot be beneficiated domestically.”
While sources welcomed investment and could envision “maybe a handful more smelters [built],” they questioned how South Africa could compete with major alloy players like China or India, especially amid ongoing long-term electricity challenges, such as rolling blackouts.
A second manganese ore producer was skeptical about the government’s renewed push for local beneficiation, questioning its practicality for the manganese sector.
“If you think about our dependence on South African imports, there is really no alternative to exporting manganese ore — there just aren’t enough manganese alloy plants,” the source said.
However, the source acknowledged that the beneficiation strategy made more sense for chrome ore, where South Africa plays a more dominant role in a relatively centralized global market. In contrast, the global manganese ore market is more diversified, and South Africa lacks the same level of manganese alloy smelting infrastructure compared to the ferro-chrome sector.
“If it was competitive to produce manganese alloy in South Africa, they’d already be doing it,” the producer added.
Some market participants also questioned whether the beneficiation agenda would ever translate into real policy. Several pointed to the proposed chrome ore export tax in 2020, which aimed to bolster the country’s domestic ferro-chrome sector but never came to fruition despite considerable industry debate.
“There seems to be noise, which is good,” a ferro-chrome producer said. “But is the noise enough for something to actually materialize?”
Given South Africa’s position as a leading producer of both manganese ore and chrome ore, if the new strategy is implemented it could disrupt global supply dynamics — particularly for China, the world’s largest importer of these materials, sources said.
Many buy-side market participants in China fear future export restrictions, which could trigger short-term price spikes, production bottlenecks at downstream silico-manganese smelters and inventory drawdowns at Chinese ports, sources said.
Following the announcement of the new critical minerals policy, China’s physical spot market for silico-manganese rose, driven by speculation and a spike in futures prices.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment of silico-manganese 65% Mn min, max 17% Si, in-whs China was 5,550-5,650 yuan ($770-784) per tonne on May 23, up by 100 yuan per tonne from 5,450-5,550 yuan per tonne one week earlier.
The rise in alloy futures also boosted sentiment in the manganese ore market, especially South Africa-origin semi-carbonate manganese ore prices in the seaborne and port-side markets.
Fastmarkets’ weekly manganese ore semi carbonate index, 36.5% Mn, cif Tianjin was calculated at $3.87 per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) on May 23, up by 11 cents from $3.76 per dmtu on May 16.
Fastmarkets’ weekly manganese ore semi carbonate port index, 36.5% Mn, fot Tianjin China was calculated at 33.70 yuan per dmtu on Friday, up by 0.40 yuan per dmtu from 33.30 yuan per dmtu on May 16.
But one producer source said the boost in seaborne semi-carbonate manganese ore prices was short-lived, and that prices had started to correct back down a day or so after the policy announcement and subsequent rise in future prices.
Meanwhile, the announcement of classifying chrome as high-critical minerals and the approval for public consultation on MRDB had little impact on chrome markets, according to sources.
“Unlike the manganese market, there is no futures contract of chrome products, and no speculative impact to the [chrome] markets,” a chrome ore and ferro-chrome trader source in China said.
“The announcement just said to list chrome as highly critical, but what does critical mineral mean [to South Africa], still need time to see,” the trader said, “and the key is the final version of the bill.”
Fastmarkets’ weekly chrome ore, South Africa UG2/MG concentrates index, cif China was $295 per tonne on Tuesday May 27, unchanged from May 13.
Similarly, charge chrome prices were also unchanged, with little impact from the announcement.
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of ferro-chrome 50% Cr import, cif main Chinese ports was $1.05 per lb on May 27, unchanged for three weeks.
“In the draft of the bill, no tariffs or export controls on chrome are mentioned,” an international chrome supplier with chrome assets in South Africa told Fastmarkets, “so we don’t have too many concerns so far.”
The supplier added that “the bill is mainly for enhancing policy and regulatory certainty in mining sector. The MRDB may formalize small-scale mining, increasing legal chrome supply, but we don’t expect any big change in supply of chrome [from South Africa].”
Manganese and chromium (chrome) remain critical to South Africa’s economy and industrial landscape.
South Africa holds 80% of the world’s known manganese resources and 37% of viable reserves, producing 7.2 million tonnes in 2023, Minister Gwede Mantashe said at the Mining Indaba on March 2.
Simultaneously, South Africa is a dominant player in the global chrome market, holding over 72% of the world’s chrome reserves, according to mining company Merafe Resources.
In 2024, South Africa exported 20.5 million tonnes of chrome, macroeconomist Hugo Pienaar from Minerals Council South Africa said on May 15 during the International Chromium Development Association’s Members Meeting 2025.
Mining expert Pienaar added that chrome ore is a high-performing commodity and the “fastest-growing subsector of South African mining over the past three decades.”
And in 2024, South Africa supplied approximately 3.3 million tonnes of ferro-chrome out of a global production total of 17.5 million tonnes, according to Merage Resources, with chromium being an essential element in the production of stainless steel.
While a significant portion of chrome ore is processed domestically into ferro-chrome, the situation is starkly different for manganese.
Estimates from the International Manganese Institute indicate that only about 2% of manganese ore mined in South Africa undergoes domestic processing.
Acknowledging this disparity, Minister Mantashe said at the conference, “We are fully aware of the value that beneficiation brings, and this year, we will intensify our engagements with manganese producers and investors to encourage investment in local processing, thereby unlocking greater value from these critical minerals.”
Both commodities are important to Asian markets too, with China especially reliant on manganese and chrome imports due to limited domestic reserves and lower ore grades, participants said.
According to Customs of China, in 2024, the country imported 29.35 million tonnes of manganese ore, with 15.93 million tonnes or 54% from South Africa; 17.03 million tonnes of chrome ore imports in China were from South Africa, accounting for 81% of total 20.93 million tonnes; and it imported 1.82 million tonnes of ferro-chrome from South Africa in 2024, taking up 50% of the combined 3.66 million tonnes.
Asian nations in recent years have been actively making efforts to accelerate domestic mineral exploration, increasing the investment into overseas assets and deepening the supply-chain cooperation, in a bid to lower dependence on South African mineral and metals, according to sources.
“China may seek to diversify its manganese supply chain and need to secure alternative manganese ore sources including Gabon, Australia, Brazil to mitigate over-reliance on South Africa,” a China-based silico-manganese trader said.
If South Africa were to restrict raw ore exports in favor of local processing, China might accelerate smelting efficiency improvements or seek new technologies to reduce manganese dependence, which may prompt China silico-manganese production adjustments, according to sources.
Smelting upgrades such as energy-efficient submerged-arc furnaces and waste heat recovery technologies would result in a 15-20% reduction in ore consumption per tonne of silico-manganese production, a second China-based silico-manganese trader said.
China has made great achievements in manganese ore exploration, with Geophysical and Geochemical Survey Institute of Hunan Province in November 2024 announcing over 100 million tonnes of carbonate manganese ore resources found in Hunan province, and Sichuan Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources in March 2025 announcing over 6 million tonnes of inferred manganese ore resources found in Sichuan province.
And large-scale enterprises in the east Asian country have aims to acquire overseas minerals or build up sales channels with seaborne suppliers.
For instance, China’s trading giant SinoSteel and ferro-chrome producing giant Xinganglian have chrome ore and ferro-chrome smelting footprints in South Africa and Zimbabwe.
In terms of manganese ore, China’s electrolyzed manganese giant Ningxia Tianyuan Group has manganese ore projects in Australia and Ghana.
And Baosteel Resources, a wholly -owned subsidiary of state-owned China Baowu Steel Group, entered a contract in March with manganese ore company Muchai Mining Kenya for purchase and sale of manganese ore.
Fastmarkets coverage of critical minerals includes in-depth price data, market insights and short- and long-term forecasting and analysis. Get price trends, market insights and forecasts for the critical minerals and strategic materials markets on our dedicated insights page here.